Segunda División
Burgos Club de Fútbol vs Castellón Prediction: a narrow Castellón win
Our model makes Burgos Club de Fútbol vs Castellón a narrow Castellón win and low confidence at 45%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- CD Castellón or drawDouble chance tips today73%1.37
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today12.5%8.00
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 64Tips44 Power88
- 67Tips44 Form83
- 68Tips44 Attack96
- 56Tips44 Defence84
- 60Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Castellón to score90% recent
Castellón scored in 9 of their last 10 (24 goals).
- Burgos Club de Fútbol to score80% recent
Burgos Club de Fútbol scored in 8 of their last 10 (17 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has CD Castellón at 45 percent, with the draw at 28 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.3 goals from Burgos Club de Fútbol and 1.3 from CD Castellón, a combined 2.6, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. One market clears our bar on this fixture: CD Castellón or draw at 73 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 12.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Burgos Club de Fútbol1.28
CD Castellón1.33Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Burgos Club de Fútbol vs Castellón: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Burgos Club de Fútbol vs Castellón?
Castellón. Our model gives them a 45% chance of winning, against 27% for Burgos Club de Fútbol and 28% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 56%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 52%, with expected goals of 1.3 for Burgos Club de Fútbol and 1.3 for Castellón.
When is Burgos Club de Fútbol vs Castellón?
Sunday 1 November, 20:30 EAT (17:30 UTC). It is a Segunda División match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.