Brasileirão Serie A
Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Prediction: a narrow Vasco da Gama win
Our model makes Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama a narrow Vasco da Gama win and low confidence at 42%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 319 wins and 128 losses from 447 settled picks, a 71.4% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today65%1.54
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today12.1%8.26
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 28Tips44 Power50
- 27Tips44 Form53
- 36Tips44 Attack52
- 20Tips44 Defence44
- 70Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Vasco da Gama at 42 percent, with the draw at 29 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.3 goals from Chapecoense and 1.5 from Vasco da Gama, a combined 2.7, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. One market clears our bar on this fixture: Over 8.5 corners at 65 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 12.1 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Chapecoense1.27
Vasco da Gama1.47Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?
Vasco da Gama. Our model gives them a 42% chance of winning, against 29% for Chapecoense and 29% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 53%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 47%, with expected goals of 1.3 for Chapecoense and 1.5 for Vasco da Gama.
When is Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama?
Sunday 15 November, 02:30 EAT (23:30 UTC). It is a Brasileirão Serie A match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.