Championship
Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers Prediction: a narrow Derby County win
Our model makes Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers a narrow Derby County win and low confidence at 39%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Derby County or Bolton WanderersDouble chance tips today73%1.37
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today66%1.52
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today12.0%8.33
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 27Tips44 Power34
- 20Tips44 Form33
- 32Tips44 Attack64
- 28Tips44 Defence4
- 40Tips44 Goals80
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Bolton Wanderers to score80% recent
Bolton Wanderers scored in 8 of their last 10 (16 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result it splits close to evenly, 39 percent Derby County, 27 percent the draw and 35 percent Bolton Wanderers. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.4 goals from Derby County and 1.3 from Bolton Wanderers, a combined 2.8, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Derby County or Bolton Wanderers at 73 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 66 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 12.0 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Derby County1.43
Bolton Wanderers1.34Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers?
Derby County. Our model gives them a 39% chance of winning, against 35% for Bolton Wanderers and 27% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 55%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 52%, with expected goals of 1.4 for Derby County and 1.3 for Bolton Wanderers.
When is Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers?
Friday 6 November, 23:00 EAT (20:00 UTC). It is a Championship match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.