Liga Portugal Betclic
Arouca vs Nacional Prediction: a narrow Arouca win
Our model makes Arouca vs Nacional a narrow Arouca win and low confidence at 52%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- FC Arouca or drawDouble chance tips today78%1.28
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.6%8.62
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has FC Arouca at 52 percent, with the draw at 26 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from FC Arouca and 1.1 from CD Nacional, a combined 2.8, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. One market clears our bar on this fixture: FC Arouca or draw at 78 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
FC Arouca1.63
CD Nacional1.14Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Arouca vs Nacional: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Arouca vs Nacional?
Arouca. Our model gives them a 52% chance of winning, against 22% for Nacional and 26% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 53%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 51%, with expected goals of 1.6 for Arouca and 1.1 for Nacional.
When is Arouca vs Nacional?
Sunday 1 November, 18:30 EAT (15:30 UTC). It is a Liga Portugal Betclic match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.