Eredivisie
Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction: a narrow Utrecht win
Our model makes Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen a narrow Utrecht win and low confidence at 45%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Model backs Over 2.5 at 64% — combined xG 3.4.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 275 wins and 118 losses from 393 settled picks, a 70% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today84%1.19
- FC Utrecht or NEC NijmegenDouble chance tips today77%1.30
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today64%1.56
- Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today63%1.59
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.7%10.31
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 37Tips44 Power34
- 40Tips44 Form30
- 72Tips44 Attack52
- 0Tips44 Defence20
- 90Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Utrecht to score90% recent
Utrecht scored in 9 of their last 10 (18 goals).
- Both teams to score80% recent · model 63%
Both teams scored in 9 of Utrecht's last 10 and 7 of NEC Nijmegen's last 10.
More both teams to score picks today - Over 2.5 goals75% recent · model 64%
9 of Utrecht's last 10 and 6 of NEC Nijmegen's last 10 went over 2.5 goals (averages 4.7 and 3.3 a game).
More over 2.5 goals picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has FC Utrecht at 45 percent, with the draw at 23 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from FC Utrecht and 1.6 from NEC Nijmegen, a combined 3.4, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 84 percent, FC Utrecht or NEC Nijmegen at 77 percent and Over 2.5 goals at 64 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
FC Utrecht1.83
NEC Nijmegen1.55Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
Utrecht. Our model gives them a 45% chance of winning, against 32% for NEC Nijmegen and 23% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 63%. Both teams scored in 9 of Utrecht's last 10 and 7 of NEC Nijmegen's last 10.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 64%, with expected goals of 1.8 for Utrecht and 1.6 for NEC Nijmegen.
When is Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen?
Sunday 8 November, 22:00 EAT (19:00 UTC). It is a Eredivisie match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.