Eerste Divisie
Heracles Almelo vs TOP Oss Prediction: a narrow Heracles Almelo win
Our model makes Heracles Almelo vs TOP Oss a narrow Heracles Almelo win and high confidence at 79%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Heracles Almelo favoured at 79%, with model xG of 1.9 vs 1.6.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 275 wins and 118 losses from 393 settled picks, a 70% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Heracles Almelo or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
- Heracles Almelo to winMatch result tips today79%1.27
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today74%1.35
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today73%1.37
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.1%10.99
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 80Tips44 Power52
- 77Tips44 Form43
- 100Tips44 Attack72
- 64Tips44 Defence40
- 70Tips44 Goals80
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Heracles Almelo to score90% recent
Heracles Almelo scored in 9 of their last 10 (30 goals).
- TOP Oss to score80% recent
TOP Oss scored in 8 of their last 10 (18 goals).
- Over 2.5 goals75% recent · model 73%
7 of Heracles Almelo's last 10 and 8 of TOP Oss's last 10 went over 2.5 goals (averages 3.9 and 3.3 a game).
More over 2.5 goals picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Heracles Almelo at 79 percent, with the draw at 13 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.9 goals from Heracles Almelo and 1.6 from TOP Oss, a combined 3.5, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Heracles Almelo or draw at 85 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent and Heracles Almelo to win at 79 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.1 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Heracles Almelo1.91
TOP Oss1.61Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Heracles Almelo vs TOP Oss: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Heracles Almelo vs TOP Oss?
Heracles Almelo. Our model gives them a 79% chance of winning, against 8% for TOP Oss and 13% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 54%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 73%, with expected goals of 1.9 for Heracles Almelo and 1.6 for TOP Oss.
When is Heracles Almelo vs TOP Oss?
Monday 2 November, 22:00 EAT (19:00 UTC). It is a Eerste Divisie match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.