J1 League
JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka Prediction: a narrow Avispa Fukuoka win
Our model makes JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka a narrow Avispa Fukuoka win and low confidence at 40%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Model backs Over 1.5 at 80% — combined xG 3.1.
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 295 wins and 141 losses from 436 settled picks, a 67.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today80%1.25
- JEF United Chiba or Avispa FukuokaDouble chance tips today75%1.33
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.9%9.17
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 36Tips44 Power24
- 23Tips44 Form13
- 48Tips44 Attack32
- 36Tips44 Defence28
- 50Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- JEF United Chiba to score80% recent
JEF United Chiba scored in 8 of their last 10 (12 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result it splits close to evenly, 36 percent JEF United Chiba, 25 percent the draw and 40 percent Avispa Fukuoka. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from JEF United Chiba and 1.6 from Avispa Fukuoka, a combined 3.1, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Over 1.5 goals at 80 percent and JEF United Chiba or Avispa Fukuoka at 75 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.9 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Avispa Fukuoka. Our model gives them a 40% chance of winning, against 36% for JEF United Chiba and 25% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 59%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 59%, with expected goals of 1.5 for JEF United Chiba and 1.6 for Avispa Fukuoka.
When is JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Sunday 1 November, 08:00 EAT (05:00 UTC). It is a J1 League match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.