Ligue 1
Le Mans vs AS Monaco Prediction: a narrow Le Mans win
Our model makes Le Mans vs AS Monaco a narrow Le Mans win and low confidence at 45%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Model backs Over 1.5 at 80% — combined xG 3.1.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 275 wins and 118 losses from 393 settled picks, a 70% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today80%1.25
- Le Mans or AS MonacoDouble chance tips today75%1.33
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.7%9.35
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 35Tips44 Power60
- 30Tips44 Form60
- 52Tips44 Attack64
- 24Tips44 Defence56
- 70Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Over 1.5 goals95% recent · model 80%
10 of Le Mans's last 10 and 9 of AS Monaco's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today - AS Monaco to score90% recent
AS Monaco scored in 9 of their last 10 (16 goals).
- Le Mans to score80% recent
Le Mans scored in 8 of their last 10 (13 goals).
- Both teams to score75% recent · model 59%
Both teams scored in 8 of Le Mans's last 10 and 7 of AS Monaco's last 10.
More both teams to score picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Le Mans at 45 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from Le Mans and 1.4 from AS Monaco, a combined 3.1, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Over 1.5 goals at 80 percent and Le Mans or AS Monaco at 75 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Le Mans1.70
AS Monaco1.40Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Le Mans vs AS Monaco: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Le Mans vs AS Monaco?
Le Mans. Our model gives them a 45% chance of winning, against 31% for AS Monaco and 25% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 59%. Both teams scored in 8 of Le Mans's last 10 and 7 of AS Monaco's last 10.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 59%, with expected goals of 1.7 for Le Mans and 1.4 for AS Monaco.
When is Le Mans vs AS Monaco?
Sunday 8 November, 19:15 EAT (16:15 UTC). It is a Ligue 1 match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.