Premier League
Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction: a narrow Arsenal win
Our model makes Liverpool vs Arsenal a narrow Arsenal win and low confidence at 39%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Liverpool FC or ArsenalDouble chance tips today72%1.39
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today12.4%8.06
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
The reasoning
On the match result it splits close to evenly, 33 percent Liverpool FC, 28 percent the draw and 39 percent Arsenal. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.2 goals from Liverpool FC and 1.4 from Arsenal, a combined 2.6, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. One market clears our bar on this fixture: Liverpool FC or Arsenal at 72 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 12.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Liverpool FC1.22
Arsenal1.40Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Liverpool vs Arsenal: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Arsenal. Our model gives them a 39% chance of winning, against 33% for Liverpool and 28% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 56%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 51%, with expected goals of 1.2 for Liverpool and 1.4 for Arsenal.
When is Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Sunday 1 November, 19:30 EAT (16:30 UTC). It is a Premier League match.
Where can I watch Liverpool vs Arsenal?
Our guide "How to watch the Premier League in Kenya" lists the channels and streaming services that carry it, country by country. Open the guide.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.