Champions League
Manchester United vs AS Roma Prediction: a narrow Manchester United win
Our model makes Manchester United vs AS Roma a narrow Manchester United win and low confidence at 40%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Both teams to score priced 64% — both attacks priced to score (xG 1.7 / 1.7).
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today82%1.22
- Manchester United or AS RomaDouble chance tips today75%1.33
- Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today64%1.56
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today63%1.59
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.4%10.64
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 29Tips44 Power69
- 20Tips44 Form63
- 40Tips44 Attack100
- 28Tips44 Defence44
- 40Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Players to watch
- Bryan Mbeumo (Manchester United)
- Amad Diallo (Manchester United)
- Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United)
What the last 10 matches say
- Over 1.5 goals90% recent · model 82%
9 of Manchester United's last 10 and 9 of AS Roma's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today - AS Roma to score90% recent
AS Roma scored in 9 of their last 10 (26 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result it splits close to evenly, 40 percent Manchester United, 25 percent the draw and 35 percent AS Roma. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from Manchester United and 1.7 from AS Roma, a combined 3.5, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 82 percent, Manchester United or AS Roma at 75 percent and Both teams to score at 64 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Manchester United1.74
AS Roma1.73Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Manchester United vs AS Roma: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Manchester United vs AS Roma?
Manchester United. Our model gives them a 40% chance of winning, against 35% for AS Roma and 25% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 64%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 63%, with expected goals of 1.7 for Manchester United and 1.7 for AS Roma.
When is Manchester United vs AS Roma?
Tuesday 3 November, 23:00 EAT (20:00 UTC). It is a Champions League match.
Where can I watch Manchester United vs AS Roma?
Our guide "How to watch the Champions League in Kenya" lists the channels and streaming services that carry it, country by country. Open the guide.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.