Premier League
Manchester United vs Aston Villa Prediction: a narrow Manchester United win
Our model makes Manchester United vs Aston Villa a narrow Manchester United win and low confidence at 42%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 275 wins and 118 losses from 393 settled picks, a 70% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Manchester United or Aston VillaDouble chance tips today74%1.35
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today60%1.67
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.4%8.77
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 29Tips44 Power75
- 20Tips44 Form77
- 40Tips44 Attack96
- 28Tips44 Defence52
- 40Tips44 Goals80
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Players to watch
- Bryan Mbeumo (Manchester United)
- Nicolas Jackson (Aston Villa)
- Amad Diallo (Manchester United)
- Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United)
What the last 10 matches say
- Over 1.5 goals90% recent · model 78%
9 of Manchester United's last 10 and 9 of Aston Villa's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today - Aston Villa to score90% recent
Aston Villa scored in 9 of their last 10 (24 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Manchester United at 42 percent, with the draw at 26 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Manchester United and 1.4 from Aston Villa, a combined 2.9, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Manchester United or Aston Villa at 74 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 60 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Manchester United1.57
Aston Villa1.37Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Manchester United vs Aston Villa: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Manchester United. Our model gives them a 42% chance of winning, against 33% for Aston Villa and 26% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 57%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 56%, with expected goals of 1.6 for Manchester United and 1.4 for Aston Villa.
When is Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Sunday 8 November, 19:30 EAT (16:30 UTC). It is a Premier League match.
Where can I watch Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Our guide "How to watch the Premier League in Kenya" lists the channels and streaming services that carry it, country by country. Open the guide.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.