Premier League
Manchester United vs Bournemouth Prediction: a narrow Manchester United win
Our model makes Manchester United vs Bournemouth a narrow Manchester United win, with a most likely score of 1-1 and low confidence at 44%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Model backs Over 1.5 at 80% — combined xG 3.1.
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 239 wins and 110 losses from 349 settled picks, a 68.5% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today80%1.25
- Manchester United or BournemouthDouble chance tips today75%1.33
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today61%1.64
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.8%9.26
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Manchester United at 44 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from Manchester United and 1.4 from Bournemouth, a combined 3.1, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Over 1.5 goals at 80 percent, Manchester United or Bournemouth at 75 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 61 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.8 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.