Ligue 2
Metz vs Pau Prediction: a narrow Metz win
Our model makes Metz vs Pau a narrow Metz win and low confidence at 44%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 295 wins and 141 losses from 436 settled picks, a 67.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Metz or Pau FCDouble chance tips today74%1.35
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.1%9.01
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 52Tips44 Power62
- 47Tips44 Form67
- 64Tips44 Attack64
- 44Tips44 Defence56
- 50Tips44 Goals50
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Metz to score80% recent
Metz scored in 8 of their last 10 (16 goals).
- Pau to score80% recent
Pau scored in 8 of their last 10 (16 goals).
- Both teams to score70% recent · model 57%
Both teams scored in 8 of Metz's last 10 and 6 of Pau's last 10.
More both teams to score picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Metz at 44 percent, with the draw at 26 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Metz and 1.4 from Pau FC, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. One market clears our bar on this fixture: Metz or Pau FC at 74 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.1 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Metz vs Pau: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Metz vs Pau?
Metz. Our model gives them a 44% chance of winning, against 29% for Pau and 26% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 57%. Both teams scored in 8 of Metz's last 10 and 6 of Pau's last 10.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 54%, with expected goals of 1.6 for Metz and 1.4 for Pau.
When is Metz vs Pau?
Friday 30 October, 22:00 EAT (19:00 UTC). It is a Ligue 2 match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.