Eerste Divisie
MVV Maastricht vs Vitesse Prediction: a narrow Vitesse win
Our model makes MVV Maastricht vs Vitesse a narrow Vitesse win and low confidence at 39%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 319 wins and 128 losses from 447 settled picks, a 71.4% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- MVV Maastricht or VitesseDouble chance tips today74%1.35
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today65%1.54
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.3%8.85
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 24Tips44 Power49
- 27Tips44 Form47
- 44Tips44 Attack52
- 0Tips44 Defence48
- 60Tips44 Goals40
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Over 1.5 goals85% recent · model 79%
9 of MVV Maastricht's last 10 and 8 of Vitesse's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today - MVV Maastricht to score80% recent
MVV Maastricht scored in 8 of their last 10 (11 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result it splits close to evenly, 36 percent MVV Maastricht, 26 percent the draw and 39 percent Vitesse. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from MVV Maastricht and 1.5 from Vitesse, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: MVV Maastricht or Vitesse at 74 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 65 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
MVV Maastricht1.46
Vitesse1.50Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
MVV Maastricht vs Vitesse: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in MVV Maastricht vs Vitesse?
Vitesse. Our model gives them a 39% chance of winning, against 36% for MVV Maastricht and 26% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 58%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 56%, with expected goals of 1.5 for MVV Maastricht and 1.5 for Vitesse.
When is MVV Maastricht vs Vitesse?
Sunday 15 November, 16:30 EAT (13:30 UTC). It is a Eerste Divisie match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.