Copa Colombia
Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional Prediction: a narrow Once Caldas win
Our model makes Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional a narrow Once Caldas win and low confidence at 46%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 319 wins and 128 losses from 447 settled picks, a 71.4% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Once Caldas or drawDouble chance tips today73%1.37
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today66%1.52
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today12.1%8.26
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 59Tips44 Power75
- 60Tips44 Form77
- 44Tips44 Attack88
- 72Tips44 Defence60
- 10Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Once Caldas to score90% recent
Once Caldas scored in 9 of their last 10 (11 goals).
- Atlético Nacional to score80% recent
Atlético Nacional scored in 8 of their last 10 (22 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Once Caldas at 46 percent, with the draw at 27 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.4 goals from Once Caldas and 1.4 from Atlético Nacional, a combined 2.8, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Once Caldas or draw at 73 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 66 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 12.1 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Once Caldas1.38
Atlético Nacional1.38Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional?
Once Caldas. Our model gives them a 46% chance of winning, against 27% for Atlético Nacional and 27% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 53%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 52%, with expected goals of 1.4 for Once Caldas and 1.4 for Atlético Nacional.
When is Once Caldas vs Atlético Nacional?
Wednesday 11 November, 04:30 EAT (01:30 UTC). It is a Copa Colombia match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.