NWSL
Portland Thorns FC vs North Carolina Courage Prediction: a narrow North Carolina Courage win
Our model makes Portland Thorns FC vs North Carolina Courage a narrow North Carolina Courage win, with a most likely score of 1-1 and low confidence at 39%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Both teams to score priced 65% — both attacks priced to score (xG 1.8 / 1.6).
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 272 wins and 136 losses from 408 settled picks, a 66.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
- Portland Thorns FC or North Carolina CourageDouble chance tips today76%1.32
- Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today65%1.54
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today64%1.56
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.7%10.31
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
The reasoning
On the match result it splits close to evenly, 37 percent Portland Thorns FC, 24 percent the draw and 39 percent North Carolina Courage. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from Portland Thorns FC and 1.6 from North Carolina Courage, a combined 3.4, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent, Portland Thorns FC or North Carolina Courage at 76 percent and Both teams to score at 65 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.