Championship
Portsmouth vs Swansea City Prediction: a narrow Portsmouth win
Our model makes Portsmouth vs Swansea City a narrow Portsmouth win and low confidence at 36%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Portsmouth or Swansea CityDouble chance tips today72%1.39
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today63%1.59
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today12.6%7.94
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 54Tips44 Power58
- 53Tips44 Form63
- 44Tips44 Attack60
- 64Tips44 Defence52
- 30Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
The reasoning
On the match result it splits close to evenly, 36 percent Portsmouth, 28 percent the draw and 36 percent Swansea City. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.4 goals from Portsmouth and 1.2 from Swansea City, a combined 2.6, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Portsmouth or Swansea City at 72 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 63 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 12.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Portsmouth1.36
Swansea City1.22Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Portsmouth vs Swansea City: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Portsmouth vs Swansea City?
Our model rates it even: 36% each, with the draw at 28%.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 57%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 53%, with expected goals of 1.4 for Portsmouth and 1.2 for Swansea City.
When is Portsmouth vs Swansea City?
Tuesday 3 November, 22:45 EAT (19:45 UTC). It is a Championship match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.