Serie A
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Prediction: a narrow Fiorentina win
Our model makes Sassuolo vs Fiorentina a narrow Fiorentina win and low confidence at 40%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Both teams to score priced 64% — both attacks priced to score (xG 1.5 / 1.5).
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
- Sassuolo or FiorentinaDouble chance tips today74%1.35
- Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today64%1.56
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today61%1.64
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.2%8.93
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 33Tips44 Power33
- 30Tips44 Form27
- 60Tips44 Attack56
- 8Tips44 Defence16
- 70Tips44 Goals90
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Sassuolo to score90% recent
Sassuolo scored in 9 of their last 10 (15 goals).
- Both teams to score80% recent · model 64%
Both teams scored in 9 of Sassuolo's last 10 and 7 of Fiorentina's last 10.
More both teams to score picks today - Over 2.5 goals80% recent · model 61%
7 of Sassuolo's last 10 and 9 of Fiorentina's last 10 went over 2.5 goals (averages 3.8 and 3.5 a game).
More over 2.5 goals picks today - Fiorentina to score80% recent
Fiorentina scored in 8 of their last 10 (14 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result it splits close to evenly, 34 percent Sassuolo, 26 percent the draw and 40 percent Fiorentina. That is a fixture the model will not call a winner in, and the honest read is that the value sits in the other markets rather than on the result. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from Sassuolo and 1.5 from Fiorentina, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent, Sassuolo or Fiorentina at 74 percent and Both teams to score at 64 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Sassuolo1.51
Fiorentina1.49Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Fiorentina. Our model gives them a 40% chance of winning, against 34% for Sassuolo and 26% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 64%. Both teams scored in 9 of Sassuolo's last 10 and 7 of Fiorentina's last 10.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 61%, with expected goals of 1.5 for Sassuolo and 1.5 for Fiorentina.
When is Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Monday 2 November, 20:30 EAT (17:30 UTC). It is a Serie A match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.