Europa League
Sunderland vs GNK Dinamo Zagreb Prediction: a narrow Sunderland win
Our model makes Sunderland vs GNK Dinamo Zagreb a narrow Sunderland win and moderate confidence at 65%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Sunderland favoured at 65%, with model xG of 1.6 vs 1.3.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Sunderland or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
- Sunderland to winMatch result tips today65%1.54
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.5%8.70
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 36Tips44 Power62
- 37Tips44 Form53
- 44Tips44 Attack84
- 28Tips44 Defence48
- 40Tips44 Goals70
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb to score90% recent
GNK Dinamo Zagreb scored in 9 of their last 10 (21 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Sunderland at 65 percent, with the draw at 20 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Sunderland and 1.3 from GNK Dinamo Zagreb, a combined 2.9, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Sunderland or draw at 85 percent and Sunderland to win at 65 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Sunderland1.60
GNK Dinamo Zagreb1.27Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Sunderland vs GNK Dinamo Zagreb: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Sunderland vs GNK Dinamo Zagreb?
Sunderland. Our model gives them a 65% chance of winning, against 15% for GNK Dinamo Zagreb and 20% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 52%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 59%, with expected goals of 1.6 for Sunderland and 1.3 for GNK Dinamo Zagreb.
When is Sunderland vs GNK Dinamo Zagreb?
Thursday 5 November, 23:00 EAT (20:00 UTC). It is a Europa League match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.