Champions League
Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain Prediction: a narrow Paris Saint-Germain win
Our model makes Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain a narrow Paris Saint-Germain win and low confidence at 59%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Model backs Over 2.5 at 70% — combined xG 3.7.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
- Paris Saint-Germain or drawDouble chance tips today80%1.25
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today70%1.43
- Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today66%1.52
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today60%1.67
- Paris Saint-Germain to winMatch result tips today59%1.69
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today8.5%11.76
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 62Tips44 Power82
- 53Tips44 Form90
- 80Tips44 Attack100
- 52Tips44 Defence56
- 70Tips44 Goals80
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Players to watch
- Achraf Hakimi (Paris Saint-Germain)
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Paris Saint-Germain)
- Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain)
What the last 10 matches say
- Paris Saint-Germain to score100% recent
Paris Saint-Germain scored in 10 of their last 10 (31 goals).
- Over 2.5 goals75% recent · model 70%
7 of Villarreal's last 10 and 8 of Paris Saint-Germain's last 10 went over 2.5 goals (averages 3.2 and 4.2 a game).
More over 2.5 goals picks today - Both teams to score70% recent · model 66%
Both teams scored in 6 of Villarreal's last 10 and 8 of Paris Saint-Germain's last 10.
More both teams to score picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Paris Saint-Germain at 59 percent, with the draw at 21 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from Villarreal and 2.0 from Paris Saint-Germain, a combined 3.7, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent, Paris Saint-Germain or draw at 80 percent and Over 2.5 goals at 70 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 8.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Villarreal1.73
Paris Saint-Germain1.96Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Paris Saint-Germain. Our model gives them a 59% chance of winning, against 20% for Villarreal and 21% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 66%. Both teams scored in 6 of Villarreal's last 10 and 8 of Paris Saint-Germain's last 10.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 70%, with expected goals of 1.7 for Villarreal and 2.0 for Paris Saint-Germain.
When is Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Tuesday 3 November, 23:00 EAT (20:00 UTC). It is a Champions League match.
Where can I watch Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Our guide "How to watch the Champions League in Kenya" lists the channels and streaming services that carry it, country by country. Open the guide.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.