Saudi Pro League
Abha vs Al-Shabab Prediction: a narrow Al-Shabab win
Our model makes Abha vs Al-Shabab a narrow Al-Shabab win and low confidence at 57%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Al-Shabab favoured at 57%, with model xG of 1.1 vs 1.8.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 275 wins and 118 losses from 393 settled picks, a 70% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Al-Shabab or drawDouble chance tips today80%1.25
- Al-Shabab (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today72%1.39
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today62%1.61
- Al-Shabab to winMatch result tips today57%1.75
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.0%9.09
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 22Tips44 Power58
- 10Tips44 Form47
- 24Tips44 Attack76
- 32Tips44 Defence52
- 40Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Players to watch
- Thomas Partey (Al-Shabab)
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Al-Shabab at 57 percent, with the draw at 23 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.1 goals from Abha and 1.8 from Al-Shabab, a combined 2.9, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Al-Shabab or draw at 80 percent, Al-Shabab (draw no bet) at 72 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 62 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.0 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Abha1.11
Al-Shabab1.77Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Abha vs Al-Shabab: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Abha vs Al-Shabab?
Al-Shabab. Our model gives them a 57% chance of winning, against 20% for Abha and 23% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 57%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 58%, with expected goals of 1.1 for Abha and 1.8 for Al-Shabab.
When is Abha vs Al-Shabab?
Thursday 5 November, 18:10 EAT (15:10 UTC). It is a Saudi Pro League match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.