Liga 3
AD Fafe vs Paços de Ferreira Prediction: a narrow AD Fafe win
Our model makes AD Fafe vs Paços de Ferreira a narrow AD Fafe win, with a most likely score of 1-0 and low confidence at 49%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 309 wins and 147 losses from 456 settled picks, a 67.8% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- AD Fafe or drawDouble chance tips today76%1.32
- AD Fafe (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today75%1.33
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today69%1.45
- Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today14.2%7.04
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 62Tips44 Power35
- 53Tips44 Form30
- 60Tips44 Attack28
- 72Tips44 Defence48
- 50Tips44 Goals30
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has AD Fafe at 49 percent, with the draw at 28 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from AD Fafe and 0.8 from Paços de Ferreira, a combined 2.4, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: AD Fafe or draw at 76 percent, AD Fafe (draw no bet) at 75 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 69 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 14.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
AD Fafe vs Paços de Ferreira: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in AD Fafe vs Paços de Ferreira?
AD Fafe. Our model gives them a 49% chance of winning, against 24% for Paços de Ferreira and 28% for the draw.
What is the predicted score?
1-0 is the single most likely scoreline in our model. Correct scores are long shots even when they are the most likely one.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 49%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 45%, with expected goals of 1.6 for AD Fafe and 0.8 for Paços de Ferreira.
When is AD Fafe vs Paços de Ferreira?
Friday 30 October, 23:00 EAT (20:00 UTC). It is a Liga 3 match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.