Champions League
AEK Athens vs Real Madrid Prediction: a narrow Real Madrid win
Our model makes AEK Athens vs Real Madrid a narrow Real Madrid win and moderate confidence at 72%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Real Madrid favoured at 72%, with model xG of 2.2 vs 1.4.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Real Madrid or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
- Real Madrid to winMatch result tips today72%1.39
- AEK Athens (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today72%1.39
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today72%1.39
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today64%1.56
- Correct score 2-1Correct score tips today9.3%10.75
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 73Tips44 Power76
- 67Tips44 Form80
- 96Tips44 Attack100
- 56Tips44 Defence48
- 70Tips44 Goals80
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Players to watch
- Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)
- Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid)
What the last 10 matches say
- AEK Athens to score100% recent
AEK Athens scored in 10 of their last 10 (24 goals).
- Real Madrid to score90% recent
Real Madrid scored in 9 of their last 10 (25 goals).
- Over 2.5 goals75% recent · model 72%
7 of AEK Athens's last 10 and 8 of Real Madrid's last 10 went over 2.5 goals (averages 3.5 and 3.8 a game).
More over 2.5 goals picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Real Madrid at 72 percent, with the draw at 15 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.2 goals from AEK Athens and 1.4 from Real Madrid, a combined 3.5, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Real Madrid or draw at 85 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent and Real Madrid to win at 72 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-1, though at 9.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
AEK Athens2.16
Real Madrid1.38Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
AEK Athens vs Real Madrid: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in AEK Athens vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid. Our model gives them a 72% chance of winning, against 13% for AEK Athens and 15% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 58%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 72%, with expected goals of 2.2 for AEK Athens and 1.4 for Real Madrid.
When is AEK Athens vs Real Madrid?
Wednesday 4 November, 20:45 EAT (17:45 UTC). It is a Champions League match.
Where can I watch AEK Athens vs Real Madrid?
Our guide "How to watch the Champions League in Kenya" lists the channels and streaming services that carry it, country by country. Open the guide.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.