Saudi Pro League
Al-Shabab vs Al-Ahli Prediction: a narrow Al-Ahli win
Our model makes Al-Shabab vs Al-Ahli a narrow Al-Ahli win and low confidence at 46%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Both teams to score priced 63% — both attacks priced to score (xG 1.1 / 2.0).
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 310 wins and 145 losses from 455 settled picks, a 68.1% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today82%1.22
- Al-Ahli (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today77%1.30
- Al-Shabab or Al-AhliDouble chance tips today75%1.33
- Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today63%1.59
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today62%1.61
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today60%1.67
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.7%10.31
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 46Tips44 Power73
- 37Tips44 Form70
- 56Tips44 Attack100
- 44Tips44 Defence48
- 60Tips44 Goals90
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Players to watch
- Thomas Partey (Al-Shabab)
What the last 10 matches say
- Al-Ahli to score90% recent
Al-Ahli scored in 9 of their last 10 (27 goals).
- Over 2.5 goals75% recent · model 62%
6 of Al-Shabab's last 10 and 9 of Al-Ahli's last 10 went over 2.5 goals (averages 2.8 and 4 a game).
More over 2.5 goals picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Al-Ahli at 46 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.1 goals from Al-Shabab and 2.0 from Al-Ahli, a combined 3.2, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 82 percent, Al-Ahli (draw no bet) at 77 percent and Al-Shabab or Al-Ahli at 75 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Al-Shabab vs Al-Ahli: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Al-Shabab vs Al-Ahli?
Al-Ahli. Our model gives them a 46% chance of winning, against 29% for Al-Shabab and 25% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 63%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 62%, with expected goals of 1.1 for Al-Shabab and 2.0 for Al-Ahli.
When is Al-Shabab vs Al-Ahli?
Friday 30 October, 21:00 EAT (18:00 UTC). It is a Saudi Pro League match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.