Categoría Primera A
América de Cali vs Fortaleza Prediction: an América de Cali win
Our model makes América de Cali vs Fortaleza an América de Cali win, with a most likely score of 1-0 and low confidence at 60%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
América de Cali favoured at 60% — model xG 1.7 vs 0.7.
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 295 wins and 141 losses from 436 settled picks, a 67.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- América de Cali or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
- América de Cali (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today84%1.19
- América de Cali to winMatch result tips today60%1.67
- Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today15.8%6.33
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 72Tips44 Power34
- 67Tips44 Form23
- 80Tips44 Attack52
- 68Tips44 Defence28
- 60Tips44 Goals70
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- América de Cali to score90% recent
América de Cali scored in 9 of their last 10 (20 goals).
- Fortaleza to score90% recent
Fortaleza scored in 9 of their last 10 (13 goals).
- Over 1.5 goals85% recent · model 69%
8 of América de Cali's last 10 and 9 of Fortaleza's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today - Both teams to score75% recent · model 44%
Both teams scored in 6 of América de Cali's last 10 and 9 of Fortaleza's last 10.
More both teams to score picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has América de Cali at 60 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from América de Cali and 0.7 from Fortaleza FC, a combined 2.4, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: América de Cali or draw at 85 percent, América de Cali (draw no bet) at 84 percent and América de Cali to win at 60 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 15.8 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
América de Cali vs Fortaleza: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in América de Cali vs Fortaleza?
América de Cali. Our model gives them a 60% chance of winning, against 15% for Fortaleza and 25% for the draw.
What is the predicted score?
1-0 is the single most likely scoreline in our model. Correct scores are long shots even when they are the most likely one.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 44%. Both teams scored in 6 of América de Cali's last 10 and 9 of Fortaleza's last 10.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 45%, with expected goals of 1.7 for América de Cali and 0.7 for Fortaleza.
When is América de Cali vs Fortaleza?
Friday 30 October, 02:15 EAT (23:15 UTC). It is a Categoría Primera A match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.