Parva Liga
Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia Prediction: a narrow Arda Kardzhali win
Our model makes Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia a narrow Arda Kardzhali win, with a most likely score of 1-0 and low confidence at 57%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Arda Kardzhali favoured at 57%, with model xG of 1.8 vs 0.9.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Arda Kardzhali or drawDouble chance tips today82%1.22
- Arda Kardzhali (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today81%1.23
- Arda Kardzhali to winMatch result tips today57%1.75
- Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today12.4%8.06
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 44Tips44 Power25
- 47Tips44 Form23
- 52Tips44 Attack32
- 32Tips44 Defence20
- 40Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Over 1.5 goals85% recent · model 68%
9 of Arda Kardzhali's last 10 and 8 of Septemvri Sofia's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today - Arda Kardzhali to score80% recent
Arda Kardzhali scored in 8 of their last 10 (13 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Arda Kardzhali at 57 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from Arda Kardzhali and 0.9 from FK Septemvri Sofia, a combined 2.7, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Arda Kardzhali or draw at 82 percent, Arda Kardzhali (draw no bet) at 81 percent and Arda Kardzhali to win at 57 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 12.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Arda Kardzhali1.83
FK Septemvri Sofia0.86Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia?
Arda Kardzhali. Our model gives them a 57% chance of winning, against 18% for Septemvri Sofia and 25% for the draw.
What is the predicted score?
1-0 is the single most likely scoreline in our model. Correct scores are long shots even when they are the most likely one.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 44%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 43%, with expected goals of 1.8 for Arda Kardzhali and 0.9 for Septemvri Sofia.
When is Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia?
Monday 2 November, 20:30 EAT (17:30 UTC). It is a Parva Liga match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.