Serie A
Atalanta vs Parma Prediction: a narrow Atalanta win
Our model makes Atalanta vs Parma a narrow Atalanta win, with a most likely score of 1-0 and moderate confidence at 63%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Atalanta favoured at 63%, with model xG of 1.8 vs 0.9.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Atalanta or drawDouble chance tips today84%1.19
- Atalanta (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today79%1.27
- Atalanta to winMatch result tips today63%1.59
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today63%1.59
- Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today11.8%8.47
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 43Tips44 Power23
- 37Tips44 Form17
- 68Tips44 Attack20
- 24Tips44 Defence32
- 70Tips44 Goals50
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Over 1.5 goals85% recent · model 79%
9 of Atalanta's last 10 and 8 of Parma's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today - Atalanta to score80% recent
Atalanta scored in 8 of their last 10 (17 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Atalanta at 63 percent, with the draw at 21 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from Atalanta and 0.9 from Parma, a combined 2.7, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Atalanta or draw at 84 percent, Atalanta (draw no bet) at 79 percent and Atalanta to win at 63 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 11.8 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Atalanta1.83
Parma0.91Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Atalanta vs Parma: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Atalanta vs Parma?
Atalanta. Our model gives them a 63% chance of winning, against 16% for Parma and 21% for the draw.
What is the predicted score?
1-0 is the single most likely scoreline in our model. Correct scores are long shots even when they are the most likely one.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 53%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 58%, with expected goals of 1.8 for Atalanta and 0.9 for Parma.
When is Atalanta vs Parma?
Monday 2 November, 22:45 EAT (19:45 UTC). It is a Serie A match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.