Categoría Primera A
Atlético Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction: a narrow Atlético Bucaramanga win
Our model makes Atlético Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto a narrow Atlético Bucaramanga win, with a most likely score of 1-0 and low confidence at 59%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Atlético Bucaramanga favoured at 59% — model xG 1.5 vs 0.8.
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 295 wins and 141 losses from 436 settled picks, a 67.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Atlético Bucaramanga or drawDouble chance tips today84%1.19
- Atlético Bucaramanga (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today74%1.35
- Atlético Bucaramanga to winMatch result tips today59%1.69
- Correct score 1-0Correct score tips today14.3%6.99
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 62Tips44 Power35
- 57Tips44 Form37
- 64Tips44 Attack28
- 64Tips44 Defence40
- 40Tips44 Goals50
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Atlético Bucaramanga to score80% recent
Atlético Bucaramanga scored in 8 of their last 10 (16 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Atlético Bucaramanga at 59 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.5 goals from Atlético Bucaramanga and 0.8 from Deportivo Pasto, a combined 2.4, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Atlético Bucaramanga or draw at 84 percent, Atlético Bucaramanga (draw no bet) at 74 percent and Atlético Bucaramanga to win at 59 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-0, though at 14.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Atlético Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Atlético Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto?
Atlético Bucaramanga. Our model gives them a 59% chance of winning, against 16% for Deportivo Pasto and 25% for the draw.
What is the predicted score?
1-0 is the single most likely scoreline in our model. Correct scores are long shots even when they are the most likely one.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 42%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 42%, with expected goals of 1.5 for Atlético Bucaramanga and 0.8 for Deportivo Pasto.
When is Atlético Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto?
Saturday 31 October, 04:05 EAT (01:05 UTC). It is a Categoría Primera A match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.