Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen Prediction: a narrow AZ Alkmaar win
Our model makes AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen a narrow AZ Alkmaar win, with a most likely score of 2-1 and moderate confidence at 62%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Model backs Over 2.5 at 64% — combined xG 3.4.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 275 wins and 118 losses from 393 settled picks, a 70% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today84%1.19
- AZ Alkmaar or drawDouble chance tips today82%1.22
- AZ Alkmaar (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today77%1.30
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today68%1.47
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today64%1.56
- AZ Alkmaar to winMatch result tips today62%1.61
- Correct score 2-1Correct score tips today9.7%10.31
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 50Tips44 Power48
- 47Tips44 Form40
- 52Tips44 Attack96
- 52Tips44 Defence8
- 40Tips44 Goals90
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Groningen to score100% recent
Groningen scored in 10 of their last 10 (24 goals).
- Over 1.5 goals85% recent · model 84%
7 of AZ Alkmaar's last 10 and 10 of Groningen's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has AZ Alkmaar at 62 percent, with the draw at 20 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.2 goals from AZ Alkmaar and 1.2 from FC Groningen, a combined 3.4, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 84 percent, AZ Alkmaar or draw at 82 percent and AZ Alkmaar (draw no bet) at 77 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-1, though at 9.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
AZ Alkmaar2.17
FC Groningen1.21Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
AZ Alkmaar. Our model gives them a 62% chance of winning, against 18% for Groningen and 20% for the draw.
What is the predicted score?
2-1 is the single most likely scoreline in our model. Correct scores are long shots even when they are the most likely one.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 59%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 64%, with expected goals of 2.2 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.2 for Groningen.
When is AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Sunday 8 November, 18:45 EAT (15:45 UTC). It is a Eredivisie match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.