DFB Pokal
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Nürnberg Prediction: a narrow Bayer 04 Leverkusen win
Our model makes Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Nürnberg a narrow Bayer 04 Leverkusen win and high confidence at 81%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Bayer 04 Leverkusen favoured at 81% — model xG 1.6 vs 2.3.
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 295 wins and 141 losses from 436 settled picks, a 67.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen to winMatch result tips today81%1.23
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today78%1.28
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today69%1.45
- 1. FC Nürnberg (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today68%1.47
- Correct score 1-2Correct score tips today8.4%11.90
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 74Tips44 Power65
- 73Tips44 Form63
- 96Tips44 Attack88
- 52Tips44 Defence44
- 70Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Over 1.5 goals90% recent · model 90%
10 of Bayer 04 Leverkusen's last 10 and 8 of Nürnberg's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today - Bayer 04 Leverkusen to score90% recent
Bayer 04 Leverkusen scored in 9 of their last 10 (24 goals).
- Nürnberg to score90% recent
Nürnberg scored in 9 of their last 10 (22 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 81 percent, with the draw at 12 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 2.3 from 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined 4.0, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Bayer 04 Leverkusen or draw at 85 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent and Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win at 81 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-2, though at 8.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Nürnberg: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Nürnberg?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Our model gives them an 81% chance of winning, against 7% for Nürnberg and 12% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 58%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 78%, with expected goals of 1.6 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 2.3 for Nürnberg.
When is Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Nürnberg?
Wednesday 28 October, 22:45 EAT (19:45 UTC). It is a DFB Pokal match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.