Europa League
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique de Marseille Prediction: a narrow Bayer 04 Leverkusen win
Our model makes Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique de Marseille a narrow Bayer 04 Leverkusen win and moderate confidence at 66%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Bayer 04 Leverkusen favoured at 66%, with model xG of 2.1 vs 1.1.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today83%1.20
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today77%1.30
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen to winMatch result tips today66%1.52
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today65%1.54
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.6%10.42
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 71Tips44 Power38
- 73Tips44 Form30
- 100Tips44 Attack60
- 40Tips44 Defence24
- 70Tips44 Goals50
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen to score90% recent
Bayer 04 Leverkusen scored in 9 of their last 10 (25 goals).
- Over 1.5 goals85% recent · model 83%
10 of Bayer 04 Leverkusen's last 10 and 7 of Olympique de Marseille's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 66 percent, with the draw at 19 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.1 goals from Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 1.1 from Olympique de Marseille, a combined 3.2, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Bayer 04 Leverkusen or draw at 85 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 83 percent and Bayer 04 Leverkusen (draw no bet) at 77 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Bayer 04 Leverkusen2.06
Olympique de Marseille1.14Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique de Marseille: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique de Marseille?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Our model gives them a 66% chance of winning, against 15% for Olympique de Marseille and 19% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 56%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 65%, with expected goals of 2.1 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 1.1 for Olympique de Marseille.
When is Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Olympique de Marseille?
Thursday 5 November, 23:00 EAT (20:00 UTC). It is a Europa League match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.