Liga Portugal Betclic
Benfica vs Alverca Prediction: a Benfica win
Our model makes Benfica vs Alverca a Benfica win, with a most likely score of 2-0 and high confidence at 80%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Benfica favoured at 80%, with model xG of 2.2 vs 0.8.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Benfica or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
- Benfica (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
- Benfica to winMatch result tips today80%1.25
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today67%1.49
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today60%1.67
- Correct score 2-0Correct score tips today11.8%8.47
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 86Tips44 Power47
- 90Tips44 Form40
- 100Tips44 Attack52
- 68Tips44 Defence48
- 80Tips44 Goals50
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Benfica to score100% recent
Benfica scored in 10 of their last 10 (29 goals).
- Over 1.5 goals85% recent · model 85%
10 of Benfica's last 10 and 7 of Alverca's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Benfica at 80 percent, with the draw at 13 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.2 goals from Benfica and 0.8 from FC Alverca, a combined 3.0, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Benfica or draw at 85 percent, Benfica (draw no bet) at 85 percent and Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-0, though at 11.8 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Benfica2.22
FC Alverca0.82Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Benfica vs Alverca: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Benfica vs Alverca?
Benfica. Our model gives them an 80% chance of winning, against 7% for Alverca and 13% for the draw.
What is the predicted score?
2-0 is the single most likely scoreline in our model. Correct scores are long shots even when they are the most likely one.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 47%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 67%, with expected goals of 2.2 for Benfica and 0.8 for Alverca.
When is Benfica vs Alverca?
Monday 2 November, 23:15 EAT (20:15 UTC). It is a Liga Portugal Betclic match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.