Championship
Cardiff City vs Burnley Prediction: a narrow Cardiff City win
Our model makes Cardiff City vs Burnley a narrow Cardiff City win and low confidence at 57%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Cardiff City favoured at 57%, with model xG of 1.8 vs 1.0.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Cardiff City or drawDouble chance tips today81%1.23
- Cardiff City (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today75%1.33
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today68%1.47
- Cardiff City to winMatch result tips today57%1.75
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.8%9.26
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 44Tips44 Power38
- 37Tips44 Form27
- 56Tips44 Attack52
- 40Tips44 Defence36
- 60Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Burnley to score90% recent
Burnley scored in 9 of their last 10 (13 goals).
- Over 1.5 goals85% recent · model 77%
8 of Cardiff City's last 10 and 9 of Burnley's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today - Both teams to score70% recent · model 54%
Both teams scored in 6 of Cardiff City's last 10 and 8 of Burnley's last 10.
More both teams to score picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Cardiff City at 57 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from Cardiff City and 1.0 from Burnley, a combined 2.9, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Cardiff City or draw at 81 percent, Cardiff City (draw no bet) at 75 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 68 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.8 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Cardiff City1.83
Burnley1.04Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Cardiff City vs Burnley: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Cardiff City vs Burnley?
Cardiff City. Our model gives them a 57% chance of winning, against 19% for Burnley and 24% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 54%. Both teams scored in 6 of Cardiff City's last 10 and 8 of Burnley's last 10.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 54%, with expected goals of 1.8 for Cardiff City and 1.0 for Burnley.
When is Cardiff City vs Burnley?
Saturday 7 November, 18:00 EAT (15:00 UTC). It is a Championship match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.