National League
Carlisle United vs Harrogate Town Prediction: a narrow Carlisle United win
Our model makes Carlisle United vs Harrogate Town a narrow Carlisle United win and low confidence at 46%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Both teams to score priced 62% — both attacks priced to score (xG 1.9 / 1.2).
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 295 wins and 141 losses from 436 settled picks, a 67.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today80%1.25
- Carlisle United or Harrogate TownDouble chance tips today75%1.33
- Carlisle United (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today70%1.43
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today66%1.52
- Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today62%1.61
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.2%9.80
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 51Tips44 Power71
- 50Tips44 Form73
- 60Tips44 Attack84
- 44Tips44 Defence56
- 60Tips44 Goals70
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Harrogate Town to score100% recent
Harrogate Town scored in 10 of their last 10 (21 goals).
- Carlisle United to score80% recent
Carlisle United scored in 8 of their last 10 (15 goals).
- Both teams to score70% recent · model 62%
Both teams scored in 7 of Carlisle United's last 10 and 7 of Harrogate Town's last 10.
More both teams to score picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Carlisle United at 46 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.9 goals from Carlisle United and 1.2 from Harrogate Town, a combined 3.1, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 80 percent, Carlisle United or Harrogate Town at 75 percent and Carlisle United (draw no bet) at 70 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result and over 2.5 goals here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Carlisle United vs Harrogate Town: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Carlisle United vs Harrogate Town?
Carlisle United. Our model gives them a 46% chance of winning, against 29% for Harrogate Town and 25% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 62%. Both teams scored in 7 of Carlisle United's last 10 and 7 of Harrogate Town's last 10.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 60%, with expected goals of 1.9 for Carlisle United and 1.2 for Harrogate Town.
When is Carlisle United vs Harrogate Town?
Wednesday 28 October, 22:45 EAT (19:45 UTC). It is a National League match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.