Copa del Rey
Alcoyano vs Mallorca Prediction: a narrow Mallorca win
Our model makes Alcoyano vs Mallorca a narrow Mallorca win and low confidence at 61%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Mallorca favoured at 61%, with model xG of 1.3 vs 1.8.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 317 wins and 134 losses from 451 settled picks, a 70.3% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Mallorca or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
- Mallorca (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today68%1.47
- Mallorca to winMatch result tips today61%1.64
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.5%9.52
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 52Tips44 Power65
- 56Tips44 Form63
- 53Tips44 Attack52
- 47Tips44 Defence80
- 67Tips44 Goals30
Out of 100, from each team's last 6 to 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Alcoyano to score83% recent
Alcoyano scored in 5 of their last 6 (8 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Mallorca at 61 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 1.3 goals from CD Alcoyano and 1.8 from Mallorca, a combined 3.1, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Mallorca or draw at 85 percent, Mallorca (draw no bet) at 68 percent and Mallorca to win at 61 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
CD Alcoyano1.27
Mallorca1.82Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Alcoyano vs Mallorca: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Alcoyano vs Mallorca?
Mallorca. Our model gives them a 61% chance of winning, against 15% for Alcoyano and 24% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 48%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49%, with expected goals of 1.3 for Alcoyano and 1.8 for Mallorca.
When is Alcoyano vs Mallorca?
Thursday 5 November, 23:00 EAT (20:00 UTC). It is a Copa del Rey match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.