Premier League
Chelsea vs Manchester United Prediction: a narrow Chelsea win
Our model makes Chelsea vs Manchester United a narrow Chelsea win and low confidence at 52%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Model backs Over 1.5 at 81% — combined xG 3.1.
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 309 wins and 147 losses from 456 settled picks, a 67.8% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today81%1.23
- Chelsea or drawDouble chance tips today77%1.30
- Chelsea (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today66%1.52
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today61%1.64
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.4%9.62
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 60Tips44 Power33
- 57Tips44 Form23
- 92Tips44 Attack48
- 32Tips44 Defence28
- 60Tips44 Goals50
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Players to watch
- Bryan Mbeumo (Manchester United)
- Amad Diallo (Manchester United)
- Cole Palmer (Chelsea)
- Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United)
What the last 10 matches say
- Over 1.5 goals95% recent · model 81%
10 of Chelsea's last 10 and 9 of Manchester United's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today - Chelsea to score80% recent
Chelsea scored in 8 of their last 10 (23 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Chelsea at 52 percent, with the draw at 25 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from Chelsea and 1.3 from Manchester United, a combined 3.1, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 81 percent, Chelsea or draw at 77 percent and Chelsea (draw no bet) at 66 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Chelsea vs Manchester United: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Chelsea. Our model gives them a 52% chance of winning, against 23% for Manchester United and 25% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 60%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 59%, with expected goals of 1.8 for Chelsea and 1.3 for Manchester United.
When is Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Saturday 31 October, 15:30 EAT (12:30 UTC). It is a Premier League match.
Where can I watch Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Our How to watch the Premier League in Kenya lists the channels and streaming services that carry it, country by country. Open the guide.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.