Brasileirão Serie A
Cruzeiro vs Bahia Prediction: a narrow Cruzeiro win
Our model makes Cruzeiro vs Bahia a narrow Cruzeiro win and low confidence at 51%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Cruzeiro or drawDouble chance tips today77%1.30
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today75%1.33
- Cruzeiro (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today72%1.39
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.4%8.77
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 59Tips44 Power57
- 60Tips44 Form63
- 76Tips44 Attack64
- 40Tips44 Defence44
- 70Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Cruzeiro to score100% recent
Cruzeiro scored in 10 of their last 10 (19 goals).
- Bahia to score80% recent
Bahia scored in 8 of their last 10 (16 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Cruzeiro at 51 percent, with the draw at 26 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.7 goals from Cruzeiro and 1.0 from Bahia, a combined 2.8, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Cruzeiro or draw at 77 percent, Over 8.5 corners at 75 percent and Cruzeiro (draw no bet) at 72 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.4 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Cruzeiro1.71
Bahia1.04Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Cruzeiro vs Bahia: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Cruzeiro. Our model gives them a 51% chance of winning, against 23% for Bahia and 26% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 57%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 56%, with expected goals of 1.7 for Cruzeiro and 1.0 for Bahia.
When is Cruzeiro vs Bahia?
Friday 6 November, 03:30 EAT (00:30 UTC). It is a Brasileirão Serie A match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.