Liga Portugal Betclic
Alverca vs Casa Pia Prediction: a narrow Alverca win
Our model makes Alverca vs Casa Pia a narrow Alverca win and low confidence at 57%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
FC Alverca favoured at 57%, with model xG of 1.6 vs 0.9.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 317 wins and 134 losses from 451 settled picks, a 70.3% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- FC Alverca or drawDouble chance tips today81%1.23
- FC Alverca (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today73%1.37
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today61%1.64
- FC Alverca to winMatch result tips today57%1.75
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.9%8.40
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 48Tips44 Power28
- 40Tips44 Form33
- 52Tips44 Attack24
- 52Tips44 Defence28
- 50Tips44 Goals30
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has FC Alverca at 57 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from FC Alverca and 0.9 from Casa Pia, a combined 2.5, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by FC Alverca or draw at 81 percent, FC Alverca (draw no bet) at 73 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 61 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.9 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
FC Alverca1.59
Casa Pia0.93Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Alverca vs Casa Pia: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Alverca. Our model gives them a 57% chance of winning, against 19% for Casa Pia and 24% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 52%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 51%, with expected goals of 1.6 for Alverca and 0.9 for Casa Pia.
When is Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Saturday 7 November, 21:00 EAT (18:00 UTC). It is a Liga Portugal Betclic match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.