Liga Portugal Betclic
Arouca vs Nacional Prediction: a narrow Arouca win
Our model makes Arouca vs Nacional a narrow Arouca win and low confidence at 49%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 295 wins and 141 losses from 436 settled picks, a 67.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- FC Arouca or drawDouble chance tips today75%1.33
- FC Arouca (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today67%1.49
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today11.6%8.62
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 60Tips44 Power29
- 60Tips44 Form23
- 60Tips44 Attack40
- 60Tips44 Defence24
- 50Tips44 Goals50
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Arouca to score80% recent
Arouca scored in 8 of their last 10 (15 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has FC Arouca at 49 percent, with the draw at 26 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.6 goals from FC Arouca and 1.1 from CD Nacional, a combined 2.8, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: FC Arouca or draw at 75 percent and FC Arouca (draw no bet) at 67 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 11.6 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Arouca vs Nacional: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Arouca vs Nacional?
Arouca. Our model gives them a 49% chance of winning, against 25% for Nacional and 26% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 54%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 52%, with expected goals of 1.6 for Arouca and 1.1 for Nacional.
When is Arouca vs Nacional?
Sunday 1 November, 18:30 EAT (15:30 UTC). It is a Liga Portugal Betclic match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.