Eredivisie
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction: a narrow Groningen win
Our model makes Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam a narrow Groningen win and low confidence at 53%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Model backs Over 2.5 at 66% — combined xG 3.3.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today84%1.19
- FC Groningen or Sparta RotterdamDouble chance tips today77%1.30
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today69%1.45
- FC Groningen (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today68%1.47
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today66%1.52
- Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today64%1.56
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.7%10.31
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 54Tips44 Power34
- 50Tips44 Form30
- 96Tips44 Attack68
- 16Tips44 Defence4
- 90Tips44 Goals90
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Groningen to score100% recent
Groningen scored in 10 of their last 10 (24 goals).
- Both teams to score85% recent · model 64%
Both teams scored in 9 of Groningen's last 10 and 8 of Sparta Rotterdam's last 10.
More both teams to score picks today - Sparta Rotterdam to score80% recent
Sparta Rotterdam scored in 8 of their last 10 (17 goals).
- Over 3.5 goals70% recent · model 44%
7 of Groningen's last 10 and 7 of Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 had four goals or more.
More over 3.5 goals picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has FC Groningen at 53 percent, with the draw at 23 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 2.0 goals from FC Groningen and 1.4 from Sparta Rotterdam, a combined 3.3, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 84 percent, FC Groningen or Sparta Rotterdam at 77 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 69 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.7 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
FC Groningen1.96
Sparta Rotterdam1.35Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Groningen. Our model gives them a 53% chance of winning, against 24% for Sparta Rotterdam and 23% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 64%. Both teams scored in 9 of Groningen's last 10 and 8 of Sparta Rotterdam's last 10.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 66%, with expected goals of 2.0 for Groningen and 1.4 for Sparta Rotterdam.
When is Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Sunday 1 November, 18:45 EAT (15:45 UTC). It is a Eredivisie match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.