Super League
Lugano vs Basel Prediction: a narrow Lugano win
Our model makes Lugano vs Basel a narrow Lugano win and low confidence at 56%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Model backs Over 2.5 at 64% — combined xG 3.4.
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 295 wins and 141 losses from 436 settled picks, a 67.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today84%1.19
- FC Lugano or BaselDouble chance tips today79%1.27
- FC Lugano (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today71%1.41
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today65%1.54
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today64%1.56
- Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today61%1.64
- FC Lugano to winMatch result tips today56%1.79
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.2%10.87
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 77Tips44 Power32
- 83Tips44 Form27
- 100Tips44 Attack68
- 48Tips44 Defence0
- 90Tips44 Goals90
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Lugano to score100% recent
Lugano scored in 10 of their last 10 (30 goals).
- Basel to score80% recent
Basel scored in 8 of their last 10 (17 goals).
- Both teams to score75% recent · model 61%
Both teams scored in 7 of Lugano's last 10 and 8 of Basel's last 10.
More both teams to score picks today - Over 3.5 goals75% recent · model 42%
9 of Lugano's last 10 and 6 of Basel's last 10 had four goals or more.
More over 3.5 goals picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has FC Lugano at 56 percent, with the draw at 21 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 2.1 goals from FC Lugano and 1.3 from Basel, a combined 3.4, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Seven markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 84 percent, FC Lugano or Basel at 79 percent and FC Lugano (draw no bet) at 71 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.2 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Lugano vs Basel: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Lugano vs Basel?
Lugano. Our model gives them a 56% chance of winning, against 23% for Basel and 21% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 61%. Both teams scored in 7 of Lugano's last 10 and 8 of Basel's last 10.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 64%, with expected goals of 2.1 for Lugano and 1.3 for Basel.
When is Lugano vs Basel?
Sunday 1 November, 18:30 EAT (15:30 UTC). It is a Super League match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.