Champions League
Porto vs Napoli Prediction: a Porto win
Our model makes Porto vs Napoli a Porto win, with a most likely score of 2-0 and low confidence at 44%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- FC Porto (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today84%1.19
- FC Porto or SSC NapoliDouble chance tips today72%1.39
- Correct score 2-0Correct score tips today9.9%10.10
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 70Tips44 Power53
- 70Tips44 Form47
- 80Tips44 Attack76
- 60Tips44 Defence36
- 60Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Porto to score80% recent
Porto scored in 8 of their last 10 (20 goals).
- Napoli to score80% recent
Napoli scored in 8 of their last 10 (19 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has FC Porto at 44 percent, with the draw at 28 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 2.3 goals from FC Porto and 1.0 from SSC Napoli, a combined 3.2, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: FC Porto (draw no bet) at 84 percent and FC Porto or SSC Napoli at 72 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-0, though at 9.9 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
FC Porto2.25
SSC Napoli0.99Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Porto vs Napoli: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Porto vs Napoli?
Porto. Our model gives them a 44% chance of winning, against 29% for Napoli and 28% for the draw.
What is the predicted score?
2-0 is the single most likely scoreline in our model. Correct scores are long shots even when they are the most likely one.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 58%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 53%, with expected goals of 2.3 for Porto and 1.0 for Napoli.
When is Porto vs Napoli?
Wednesday 4 November, 23:00 EAT (20:00 UTC). It is a Champions League match.
Where can I watch Porto vs Napoli?
Our guide "How to watch the Champions League in Kenya" lists the channels and streaming services that carry it, country by country. Open the guide.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.