Eredivisie
Twente vs Ajax Prediction: a narrow Twente win
Our model makes Twente vs Ajax a narrow Twente win and low confidence at 52%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Model backs Over 2.5 at 66% — combined xG 3.5.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 275 wins and 118 losses from 393 settled picks, a 70% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
- FC Twente or AFC AjaxDouble chance tips today78%1.28
- FC Twente (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today66%1.52
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today66%1.52
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today65%1.54
- Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today63%1.59
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.1%10.99
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 86Tips44 Power72
- 83Tips44 Form67
- 100Tips44 Attack100
- 76Tips44 Defence48
- 50Tips44 Goals70
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Players to watch
- Simon Adingra (Ajax)
What the last 10 matches say
- Twente to score100% recent
Twente scored in 10 of their last 10 (31 goals).
- Ajax to score100% recent
Ajax scored in 10 of their last 10 (25 goals).
- Over 1.5 goals85% recent · model 85%
8 of Twente's last 10 and 9 of Ajax's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has FC Twente at 52 percent, with the draw at 22 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 2.0 goals from FC Twente and 1.5 from AFC Ajax, a combined 3.5, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent, FC Twente or AFC Ajax at 78 percent and FC Twente (draw no bet) at 66 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.1 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
FC Twente2.01
AFC Ajax1.46Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Twente vs Ajax: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Twente vs Ajax?
Twente. Our model gives them a 52% chance of winning, against 27% for Ajax and 22% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 63%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 66%, with expected goals of 2.0 for Twente and 1.5 for Ajax.
When is Twente vs Ajax?
Sunday 8 November, 16:30 EAT (13:30 UTC). It is a Eredivisie match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.