Brasileirão Serie A
Flamengo vs Grêmio Prediction: a Flamengo win
Our model makes Flamengo vs Grêmio a Flamengo win, with a most likely score of 2-0 and high confidence at 81%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Flamengo favoured at 81%, with model xG of 2.1 vs 0.7.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 275 wins and 118 losses from 393 settled picks, a 70% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Flamengo or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
- Flamengo (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today85%1.18
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today84%1.19
- Flamengo to winMatch result tips today81%1.23
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today74%1.35
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today68%1.47
- Correct score 2-0Correct score tips today13.3%7.52
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 71Tips44 Power47
- 73Tips44 Form40
- 72Tips44 Attack48
- 68Tips44 Defence52
- 60Tips44 Goals30
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Flamengo to score80% recent
Flamengo scored in 8 of their last 10 (18 goals).
- Grêmio to score80% recent
Grêmio scored in 8 of their last 10 (12 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Flamengo at 81 percent, with the draw at 13 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.1 goals from Flamengo and 0.7 from Grêmio, a combined 2.8, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Flamengo or draw at 85 percent, Flamengo (draw no bet) at 85 percent and Over 1.5 goals at 84 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-0, though at 13.3 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Flamengo2.12
Grêmio0.71Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Flamengo vs Grêmio: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Flamengo vs Grêmio?
Flamengo. Our model gives them an 81% chance of winning, against 7% for Grêmio and 13% for the draw.
What is the predicted score?
2-0 is the single most likely scoreline in our model. Correct scores are long shots even when they are the most likely one.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 47%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 68%, with expected goals of 2.1 for Flamengo and 0.7 for Grêmio.
When is Flamengo vs Grêmio?
Thursday 5 November, 01:30 EAT (22:30 UTC). It is a Brasileirão Serie A match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.