Serie A
Genoa vs AC Milan Prediction: a narrow AC Milan win
Our model makes Genoa vs AC Milan a narrow AC Milan win and low confidence at 48%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 275 wins and 118 losses from 393 settled picks, a 70% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- AC Milan or drawDouble chance tips today75%1.33
- AC Milan (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today66%1.52
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today12.1%8.26
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 48Tips44 Power59
- 53Tips44 Form57
- 44Tips44 Attack80
- 48Tips44 Defence40
- 40Tips44 Goals70
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Players to watch
- Samuel Chukwueze (AC Milan)
What the last 10 matches say
- Over 1.5 goals90% recent · model 73%
8 of Genoa's last 10 and 10 of AC Milan's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today - Genoa to score80% recent
Genoa scored in 8 of their last 10 (11 goals).
- AC Milan to score80% recent
AC Milan scored in 8 of their last 10 (20 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has AC Milan at 48 percent, with the draw at 27 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.1 goals from Genoa and 1.5 from AC Milan, a combined 2.6, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: AC Milan or draw at 75 percent and AC Milan (draw no bet) at 66 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 12.1 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Genoa1.09
AC Milan1.53Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Genoa vs AC Milan: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Genoa vs AC Milan?
AC Milan. Our model gives them a 48% chance of winning, against 25% for Genoa and 27% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 52%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49%, with expected goals of 1.1 for Genoa and 1.5 for AC Milan.
When is Genoa vs AC Milan?
Sunday 8 November, 17:00 EAT (14:00 UTC). It is a Serie A match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.