Bundesliga
Hamburger SV vs Borussia M'gladbach Prediction: a narrow Hamburger SV win
Our model makes Hamburger SV vs Borussia M'gladbach a narrow Hamburger SV win and low confidence at 49%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Model backs Over 2.5 at 62% — combined xG 3.3.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today83%1.20
- Hamburger SV or Borussia M'gladbachDouble chance tips today77%1.30
- Hamburger SV (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today63%1.59
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today62%1.61
- Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score tips today61%1.64
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today9.9%10.10
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 41Tips44 Power42
- 50Tips44 Form37
- 48Tips44 Attack68
- 24Tips44 Defence20
- 60Tips44 Goals70
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Over 1.5 goals85% recent · model 83%
8 of Hamburger SV's last 10 and 9 of Borussia M'gladbach's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today - Borussia M'gladbach to score80% recent
Borussia M'gladbach scored in 8 of their last 10 (17 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Hamburger SV at 49 percent, with the draw at 23 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.9 goals from Hamburger SV and 1.4 from Borussia M'gladbach, a combined 3.3, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Five markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Over 1.5 goals at 83 percent, Hamburger SV or Borussia M'gladbach at 77 percent and Hamburger SV (draw no bet) at 63 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 9.9 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Hamburger SV1.86
Borussia M'gladbach1.42Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Hamburger SV vs Borussia M'gladbach: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Hamburger SV vs Borussia M'gladbach?
Hamburger SV. Our model gives them a 49% chance of winning, against 28% for Borussia M'gladbach and 23% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 61%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 62%, with expected goals of 1.9 for Hamburger SV and 1.4 for Borussia M'gladbach.
When is Hamburger SV vs Borussia M'gladbach?
Friday 6 November, 22:30 EAT (19:30 UTC). It is a Bundesliga match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.