Europa League
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok Prediction: a Levski Sofia win
Our model makes Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok a Levski Sofia win, with a most likely score of 2-0 and low confidence at 47%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 268 wins and 122 losses from 390 settled picks, a 68.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Levski Sofia (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today84%1.19
- Levski Sofia or drawDouble chance tips today74%1.35
- Correct score 2-0Correct score tips today11.5%8.70
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 66Tips44 Power59
- 70Tips44 Form50
- 52Tips44 Attack84
- 76Tips44 Defence44
- 30Tips44 Goals80
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Levski Sofia to score80% recent
Levski Sofia scored in 8 of their last 10 (13 goals).
- Jagiellonia Białystok to score80% recent
Jagiellonia Białystok scored in 8 of their last 10 (21 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Levski Sofia at 47 percent, with the draw at 26 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 2.0 goals from Levski Sofia and 0.9 from Jagiellonia Białystok, a combined 2.9, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Two markets clear our bar on this fixture: Levski Sofia (draw no bet) at 84 percent and Levski Sofia or draw at 74 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-0, though at 11.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on match result, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Levski Sofia2.03
Jagiellonia Białystok0.86Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
Levski Sofia. Our model gives them a 47% chance of winning, against 26% for Jagiellonia Białystok and 26% for the draw.
What is the predicted score?
2-0 is the single most likely scoreline in our model. Correct scores are long shots even when they are the most likely one.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 54%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 53%, with expected goals of 2.0 for Levski Sofia and 0.9 for Jagiellonia Białystok.
When is Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok?
Thursday 5 November, 20:45 EAT (17:45 UTC). It is a Europa League match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.