Parva Liga
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets Prediction: a narrow Ludogorets win
Our model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets a narrow Ludogorets win, with a most likely score of 0-1 and moderate confidence at 64%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Ludogorets favoured at 64% — model xG 0.8 vs 1.4.
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 309 wins and 147 losses from 456 settled picks, a 67.8% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Ludogorets or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
- Ludogorets (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today72%1.39
- Ludogorets to winMatch result tips today64%1.56
- Correct score 0-1Correct score tips today14.8%6.76
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 37Tips44 Power78
- 30Tips44 Form77
- 24Tips44 Attack92
- 56Tips44 Defence64
- 10Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Ludogorets to score90% recent
Ludogorets scored in 9 of their last 10 (23 goals).
- Over 1.5 goals85% recent · model 69%
7 of Lokomotiv Plovdiv's last 10 and 10 of Ludogorets's last 10 had at least two goals.
More over 1.5 goals picks today
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Ludogorets at 64 percent, with the draw at 23 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 0.8 goals from Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.4 from Ludogorets, a combined 2.3, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Three markets clear our bar on this fixture: Ludogorets or draw at 85 percent, Ludogorets (draw no bet) at 72 percent and Ludogorets to win at 64 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 0-1, though at 14.8 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets?
Ludogorets. Our model gives them a 64% chance of winning, against 13% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 23% for the draw.
What is the predicted score?
0-1 is the single most likely scoreline in our model. Correct scores are long shots even when they are the most likely one.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 40%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 44%, with expected goals of 0.8 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.4 for Ludogorets.
When is Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets?
Saturday 31 October, 15:00 EAT (12:00 UTC). It is a Parva Liga match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.