League One
Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion Prediction: a narrow Milton Keynes Dons win
Our model makes Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion a narrow Milton Keynes Dons win and low confidence at 56%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Milton Keynes Dons favoured at 56%, with model xG of 1.8 vs 1.1.
How we pick
A data model prices every market from form, expected goals, home and away records and head-to-head, and a pick is published only when its probability clears our bar. Every pick then settles in public against the final score, losses included. Tips are for readers aged 18 and over and are not advice to bet.
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 301 wins and 119 losses from 420 settled picks, a 71.7% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Milton Keynes Dons or drawDouble chance tips today80%1.25
- Milton Keynes Dons (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today73%1.37
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today69%1.45
- Milton Keynes Dons to winMatch result tips today56%1.79
- Correct score 1-1Correct score tips today10.8%9.26
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
Tips44 Scores
How they work- 60Tips44 Power44
- 60Tips44 Form40
- 80Tips44 Attack48
- 40Tips44 Defence44
- 60Tips44 Goals60
Out of 100, from each team's last 10 matches in all competitions.
What the last 10 matches say
- Milton Keynes Dons to score80% recent
Milton Keynes Dons scored in 8 of their last 10 (20 goals).
Each team's last 10 finished matches in all competitions. Recent form is one input, not a forecast on its own.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Milton Keynes Dons at 56 percent, with the draw at 24 percent. That is a lean, not a strong one, so the draw is a live outcome here. The model expects roughly 1.8 goals from Milton Keynes Dons and 1.1 from Burton Albion, a combined 2.9, which is around the average for a competitive fixture. Four markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Milton Keynes Dons or draw at 80 percent, Milton Keynes Dons (draw no bet) at 73 percent and Over 8.5 corners at 69 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, though at 10.8 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Milton Keynes Dons1.82
Burton Albion1.08Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion: questions and answers
Who is the favourite in Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion?
Milton Keynes Dons. Our model gives them a 56% chance of winning, against 20% for Burton Albion and 24% for the draw.
Will both teams score?
Our model puts both teams to score at 57%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts over 2.5 goals at 57%, with expected goals of 1.8 for Milton Keynes Dons and 1.1 for Burton Albion.
When is Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion?
Saturday 14 November, 18:00 EAT (15:00 UTC). It is a League One match.
How accurate are these predictions?
Every pick we publish is settled publicly, wins and losses, on our track record page. No prediction is certain. See the record.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.