MLS
Minnesota United vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction: a Minnesota United win
Our model makes Minnesota United vs Sporting Kansas City a Minnesota United win, with a most likely score of 2-1 and moderate confidence at 68%. Kickoff is . This is informational only. The match can go any way, and we publish our losses alongside our wins.
The prediction
Minnesota United favoured at 68% — model xG 2.4 vs 1.1.
Public record
Across the markets we settle publicly (match result, both teams to score and the over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals lines), the last 14 days come to 265 wins and 135 losses from 400 settled picks, a 66.3% strike rate.
See every settled pick, wins and losses · How the model works. No tip is a sure win.
Every market we call on this match
- Minnesota United or drawDouble chance tips today85%1.18
- Over 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals tips today85%1.18
- Minnesota United (draw no bet)Draw no bet tips today83%1.20
- Minnesota United to winMatch result tips today68%1.47
- Over 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals tips today67%1.49
- Over 8.5 cornersCorners tips today66%1.52
- Correct score 2-1Correct score tips today9.5%10.53
Odds shown are implied by the model's own probability, not quoted from a bookmaker. Markets missing from this list are ones the numbers did not clear the bar on.
The reasoning
On the match result the model has Minnesota United at 68 percent, with the draw at 18 percent. That is a clear lean rather than a coin toss. The model expects roughly 2.4 goals from Minnesota United and 1.1 from Sporting Kansas City, a combined 3.5, which points to an open game rather than a tight one. Six markets clear our bar on this fixture, led by Minnesota United or draw at 85 percent, Over 1.5 goals at 85 percent and Minnesota United (draw no bet) at 83 percent. The most likely exact scoreline is 2-1, though at 9.5 percent that is a long shot by the nature of the correct score market. It does not publish a pick on both teams to score here, which means the numbers did not clear the bar rather than that we forgot to look. A market with no pick is the model saying it sees no edge.
Generated from the same form, expected goals and head-to-head data that produced the picks above. How the model works.
Full-time result probabilities
Expected goals
Expected goals estimate how many each side should score given the chances the model projects they will create and concede.
Informational only. Livescore44 does not operate a gambling service and does not accept wagers. Outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is ever certain. 18+. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.